Predictors of mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients and risk score formulation for prioritizing tertiary care-An experience from South India.

BACKGROUND: We retrospectively data-mined the case records of Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) confirmed COVID-19 patients hospitalized to a tertiary care centre to derive mortality predictors and formulate a risk score, for prioritizing admission. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data on clinical manifestations, comorbidities, vital signs, and basic lab investigations collected as part of routine medical management at admission to a COVID-19 tertiary care centre in Chengalpattu, South India between May and November 2020 were retrospectively analysed to ascertain predictors of mortality in the univariate analysis using their relative difference in distribution among 'survivors' and 'non-survivors'. The regression coefficients of those factors remaining significant in the multivariable logistic regression were utilised for risk score formulation and validated in 1000 bootstrap datasets. Among 746 COVID-19 patients hospitalised [487 "survivors" and 259 "non-survivors" (deaths)], there was a slight male predilection [62.5%, (466/746)], with a higher mortality rate observed among 40-70 years age group [59.1%, (441/746)] and highest among diabetic patients with elevated urea levels [65.4% (68/104)]. The adjusted odds ratios of factors [OR (95% CI)] significant in the multivariable logistic regression were SaO2<95%; 2.96 (1.71-5.18), Urea ≥50 mg/dl: 4.51 (2.59-7.97), Neutrophil-lymphocytic ratio (NLR) >3; 3.01 (1.61-5.83), Age ≥50 years;2.52 (1.45-4.43), Pulse Rate ≥100/min: 2.02 (1.19-3.47) and coexisting Diabetes Mellitus; 1.73 (1.02-2.95) with hypertension and gender not retaining their significance. The individual risk scores for SaO2<95-11, Urea ≥50 mg/dl-15, NLR >3-11, Age ≥50 years-9, Pulse Rate ≥100/min-7 and coexisting diabetes mellitus-6, acronymed collectively as 'OUR-ARDs score' showed that the sum of scores ≥ 25 predicted mortality with a sensitivity-90%, specificity-64% and AUC of 0.85. CONCLUSIONS: The 'OUR ARDs' risk score, derived from easily assessable factors predicting mortality, offered a tangible solution for prioritizing admission to COVID-19 tertiary care centre, that enhanced patient care but without unduly straining the health system.

Effect of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity on antigen - specific cytokine and chemokine responses in latent tuberculosis.

SARS-CoV-2 and latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection are both highly co-prevalent in many parts of the globe. Whether exposure to SARS-CoV-2 influences the antigen specific immune responses in latent tuberculosis has not been investigated. We examined the baseline, mycobacterial antigen and mitogen induced cytokine and chemokine responses in latent tuberculosis (LTBI) individuals with or without SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity, LTBI negative individuals with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and healthy control (both LTBI and SARS-CoV-2 negative) individuals. Our results demonstrated that LTBI individuals with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity (LTBI+/IgG +) were associated with increased levels of unstimulated and TB-antigen stimulated IFNγ, IL-2, TNFα, IL-17, IL-1ß, IL-6, IL-12, IL-4, CXCL1, CXCL9 and CXCL10 when compared to those without seropositivity (LTBI+/IgG-). In contrast, LTBI+/IgG+ individuals were associated with decreased levels of IL-5 and IL-10. No significant difference in the levels of cytokines/chemokines was observed upon mitogen stimulation between the groups. SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity was associated with enhanced unstimulated and TB-antigen stimulated but not mitogen stimulated production of cytokines and chemokines in LTBI+ compared to LTBI negative individuals. Finally, most of these significant differences were not observed when LTBI negative individuals with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and controls were examined. Our data clearly demonstrate that both baseline and TB - antigen induced cytokine responses are augmented in the presence of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity, suggesting an augmenting effect of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection on the immune responses of LTBI individuals.

Predictors of unfavorable responses to therapy in rifampicin-sensitive pulmonary tuberculosis using an integrated approach of radiological presentation and sputum mycobacterial burden.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the exalted status of sputum mycobacterial load for gauging pulmonary tuberculosis treatment and progress, Chest X-rays supplement valuable information for taking instantaneous therapeutic decisions, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Even though literature on individual parameters is overwhelming, few studies have explored the interaction between radiographic parameters denoting severity with mycobacterial burden signifying infectivity. By using a sophisticated approach of integrating Chest X-ray parameters with sputum mycobacterial characteristics, evaluated at all the three crucial time points of TB treatment namely pre-treatment, end of intensive phase and completion of treatment, utilizing the interactive Cox Proportional Hazards model, we aimed to precisely deduce predictors of unfavorable response to TB treatment. MATERIALS AND METHOD: We extracted de-identified data from well characterized clinical trial cohorts that recruited rifampicin-sensitive Pulmonary TB patients without any comorbidities, taking their first spell of anti-tuberculosis therapy under supervision and meticulous follow up for 24 months post treatment completion, to accurately predict TB outcomes. Radiographic data independently obtained, interpreted by two experienced pulmonologists was collated with demographic details and, sputum smear and culture grades of participants by an independent statistician and analyzed using the Cox Proportional Hazards model, to not only adjust for confounding factors including treatment effect, but also explore the interaction between radiological and bacteriological parameters for better therapeutic application. RESULTS: Of 667 TB patients with data available, cavitation, extent of involvement, lower zone involvement, smear and culture grade at baseline were significant parameters predisposing to an unfavorable TB treatment outcome in the univariate analysis. Reduction in radiological lesions in Chest X-ray by at least 50% at 2 months and 75% at the end of treatment helped in averting unfavorable responses. Smear and Culture conversion at the end of 2 months was highly significant as a predictor (p<0.001). In the multivariate analysis, the adjusted hazards ratios (HR) for an unfavorable response to TB therapy for extent of involvement, baseline cavitation and persistence (post treatment) were 1.21 (95% CI: 1.01-1.44), 1.73 (95% CI: 1.05-2.84) and 2.68 (95% CI: 1.4-5.12) respectively. A 3+ smear had an HR of 1.94 (95% CI: 0.81-4.64). Further probing into the interaction, among patients with 3+ and 2+ smears, HRs for cavitation were 3.26 (95% CI: 1.33-8.00) and 1.92 (95% CI: 0.80-4.60) while for >2 zones, were 3.05 (95% CI: 1.12-8.23) and 1.92 (95% CI: 0.72-5.08) respectively. Patients without cavitation, zonal involvement <2, and a smear grade less than 2+ had a better prognosis and constituted minimal disease. CONCLUSION: Baseline Cavitation, Opacities occupying >2 zones and 3+ smear grade individually and independently forecasted a poorer TB outcome. The interaction model revealed that Zonal involvement confined to 2 zones, without a cavity and smear grade up to 2+, constituting "minimal disease", had a better prognosis. Radiological clearance >50% along with smear conversion at the end of intensive phase of treatment, observed to be a reasonable alternative to culture conversion in predicting a successful outcome. These parameters may potentially take up key positions as stratification factors for future trials contemplating on shorter TB regimens.

BCG vaccination induces enhanced frequencies of memory T and B cells and dendritic cell subsets in elderly individuals (preprint)

Background BCG vaccination is known to induce innate immune memory, which confers protection against heterologous infections. However, the effect of BCG vaccination on the conventional innate and adaptive immune cells subsets is not well characterized. Methods We investigated the impact of BCG vaccination on the frequencies of T cell, B cell, monocyte and dendritic cell subsets as well as total antibody levels in a group of healthy elderly individuals (age 60-80 years) at one month post vaccination as part of our clinical study to examine the effect of BCG on COVID-19. Results Our results demonstrate that BCG vaccination induced enhanced frequencies of central and effector memory CD4+ T cells and diminished frequencies of naïve, transitional memory, stem cell memory CD4+ T cells and regulatory T cells. In addition, BCG vaccination induced enhanced frequencies of central, effector and terminal effector memory CD8+ T cells and diminished frequencies of naïve, transitional memory and stem cell memory CD8+T cells. BCG vaccination also induced enhanced frequencies of immature, classical and activated memory B cells and plasma cells and diminished frequencies of naïve and atypical memory B cells. While BCG vaccination did not induce significant alterations in monocytes subsets, it induced increased frequencies of myeloid and plasmacytoid DCs. Finally, BCG vaccination resulted in elevated levels of all antibody isotypes. Conclusions BCG vaccination was associated with enhanced innate and adaptive memory cell subsets, as well as total antibody levels in elderly individuals, suggesting its potential utility in SARS-Cov2 infection by enhancing heterologous immunity.